And in no small part thanks to Azerbaijan’s chairmanship. Which in itself is peculiar as Azerbaijan was hauled over hot coals in the run up to the event, for allegedly not being able to fulfill its role of “honest broker” (being a “petrostate”).

And yet, the deal that Azerbaijan brokered includes a tripling of the finance deal for developing countries (last negotiated at COP21 in Paris), from $100 billion to $300 billion for climate change loss and damage mitigation. The funding is part of a financial package adding up to $1.3 trillion in “blended finance” by 2035. As COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev says in the article for the Guardian describing the final days of the negotiations, that financial deal would have been more generous, had Western countries backed the $500 billion proposed by China.

New deal on carbon market trading

There is more. In addition to the money paid into the Loss and Damage Fund, COP29 also sealed a new deal on carbon market trading, pursuant to Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. As UNFCCC states “after nearly a decade of work, countries have agreed on… making country-to-country trading and a carbon crediting mechanism fully operational.” And adds, “This is good news for developing countries, who will benefit from new flows of finance, and it is particularly good news for least developed countries, who will get the capacity-building support they need to get a foothold in the market.”

Also see: Multilateral development banks to reinforce climate finance

The COP29 Presidency also launched an initiative on peace, relief and recovery (Baku Call) which will tackle the nexus between climate change and armed conflict, focusing on water scarcity, food insecurity, land degradation and human displacement. While UNFCCC hailed progress on transparency stating that, “Transparent climate reporting made big strides forward in Baku… with Parties expressing their appreciation for the timely completion of the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) reporting tools.”

On adaptation there were a number of outcomes. The COP29 decision relating to the least developed countries (LDCs) establishes a support programme for the implementation of National Adaptation Plans. And in addition to a High-Level Dialogue on National Adaptation Plans, the Baku Workplan elevated the voices of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in climate action.

Widening participation in climate action

There were also gender and climate change initiatives, recognising that women are hit disproportionately hard by the climate crisis. These initiatives extended the Lima Work Programme on Gender and Climate Change for another 10 years. Finally, a number of initiatives were aimed at widening participation in climate action. These are Action for Climate Empowerment (ACE), the Youth-led Climate Forum and increased visibility for High-Level Climate Champions.

So, was COP29 a success? According to UNFCCC figures there were 55,000 people in attendance, making it the second largest COP, after Dubai in 2023. So certainly in that sense it hasn’t failed. But, the real question is whether has delivered on its promise to provide effective means of combating climate change.

Also see: IRENA is calling for ambitious NDC updates

To answer this question let us try a counterfactual approach. Let’s assume that the Parties rejected the offer of $300 billion and no progress was made on carbon trading. Would have that enabled a better deal in Belem at COP30? I think not. Actually, had the Parties rejected the deal in Baku, there would have been nothing on the table in Belem.

Counterweight to climate deniers

In January 2025 climate change denier Donald Trump will enter the White House. Trump has already appointed the fracking magnate Chris Wright as energy secretary. According to media reports, Wright has dismissed the idea of a global energy transition, asserting that “there is no climate crisis”. Such developments are emboldening climate change deniers such as President Milei of Argentina, who denounced climate change as a “socialist lie” (Argentian delegation withdrew from COP29).

Also see: Trump’s re-election brings significant challenges for climate protection

In addition, in February Germany goes to the polls. Significantly, the early elections were triggered by Chancellor Scholz’ proposals to close a €10 billion gap in the 2025 budget, by cutting, amongst other items, climate protection measures. Close to Germany, debt-to-GDP ratios in France and Italy remain perilously high, putting any decision on climate funding in jeopardy.

To sum up, the deal in Baku was the best possible deal in the circumstances. This might not be the most popular point of view, but certainly reason has prevailed. Azerbaijan as the COP29 Presidency has done a good job of marshalling the deal through. Had the deal not happened this year, there would have been very little chance of any deal next year. Anyone who thinks that climate change is indeed the greatest societal challenge of our times, should welcome the outcome of COP29 as broadly positive. (GS/hcn)





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MDBs estimate that by 2030, their annual collective climate financing for low- and middle-income countries will reach US$120 billion, including US$42 billion for adaptation, and MDBs aim to mobilise US$ 65 billion from the private sector.

For high-income countries, this annual collective climate financing is projected to reach US$50 billion, including US$7 billion for adaptation, and MDBs aim to mobilise US$ 65 billion from the private sector.

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MDBs significantly exceeded their ambitious 2025 climate finance projections set in 2019, with a 25% increase in direct climate finance and mobilization for climate efforts doubling over the past year.  

New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance

“While the scale of MDBs’ financial commitments is essential, MDBs’ most significant impact comes from our ability to drive transformative change,” the statement said. “As emphasised by the Group of Heads of MDBs in the recent Viewpoint Note: MDBs Working as a System for Impact and Scale, we MDBs are focused on amplifying our catalytic effect by enhancing the results and impact of our financing, deepening engagement with countries through platforms, supporting clients’ climate ambitions, and increasing private sector mobilisation.”

Also see: COP29 – IRENA is calling for ambitious NDC updates

“Rallying to the call for urgent climate action, MDBs recognise the central importance of establishing a New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) at COP 29 in Baku. A robust and ambitious NCQG is essential for achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, and we urge Parties to reach a strong conclusion on this objective,” the statement said.

Deepening collaboration

Recognising that quality and systemic impact must be informed by climate results, the MDBs released the Common Approach to Measuring Climate Results: Update on Indicators. The common approach, issued in April, is the first shared framework to define, measure, and link global progress on climate mitigation and adaptation with the climate results of MDB activities.

The MDBs also published their Country Platforms for Climate Action – MDB Statement of Common Understanding and Way Forward, reaffirming their joint support for efforts to foster collaboration between host countries, MDBs, donors, and the private sector. Based on country demand, MDBs will build on successful examples to support the launch of new platforms, while deepening collaboration with partners including the International Monetary Fund.

Also see: EBRD supports renewables in Romania and Moldova

The statement was issued by the African Development Bank Group, the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Council of Europe Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, the Islamic Development Bank, the New Development Bank, and the World Bank Group. (hcn)





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Released at the opening of the UN Climate Conference COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the Agency’s 1.5°C Scenario outlines a net-zero path by midcentury, offering a framework for governments to develop energy transition strategies that better align energy planning with climate policies to channel investment.

The Outlook shows that current country pledges could cut global energy-related CO2 emissions by 3% by 2030 and 51% by 2050. Achieving the global goals of tripling renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, as agreed at COP28, would keep the energy transition on track for net-zero emissions by 2050. These 2030 targets are crucial to limiting global temperature rise to below 1.5°C, as underscored by the UAE Consensus.

However, a significant gap remains between political announcements and actual county plans and policies. National plans and targets are set to deliver only half of the required growth in renewable power by 2030. Investments in renewable power, grids and flexibility, energy efficiency and conservation must increase dramatically to meet the renewable energy and efficiency goals, totalling USD 31.5 trillion from 2024-2030.

Large geographical disparities regarding renewable investments

There are also large geographical disparities in terms of renewable additions and investments, causing inequalities in the global energy transition. While renewable investment has generally been on the rise, it remains concentrated in a few countries, leaving much of the Global South behind.

Also see: Azerbaijan – More renewables and more gas for Europe

Moreover, with over 70% energy supply, fossil fuels continue to dominate the energy mix in several of the biggest economies, the world’s largest CO2 emitters. To meet the 1.5°C target, the G20 must triple its installed renewable power capacity by 2030, reaching 9,400 gigawatts (GW), and expand it seven-fold by 2050 to 24,900 GW, compared to 2023 levels.

We have reached crunch time. A robust global finance deal and the next NDCs (nationally determined contributions) in 2025 are ‘make or break’ moments to keep 1.5°C alive. NDCs 3.0 provide the last opportunity this decade for countries to step up their stated ambitions. Particularly, an agreement on a new quantified goal for climate finance at COP29 is critical to ensure a just transition, support investments in the Global South and empower countries to step up their NDC ambitions. 1.5°C hinges on efforts by G20 countries. Their NDCs must match global commitments to triple renewable power capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030.

Stronger and more flexible power grid networks

Under IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario, renewable energy sources would provide the bulk of the power mix, accounting for 68% and 91% of the total electricity supply by 2030 and 2050, respectively. By 2050, a deep transformation of the power and end-use sectors is required to enable the high shares of renewable energy required by the transition.

Globally, the expansion of renewable electricity will facilitate the transition away from fossil fuels in the power sector. Fossil fuels will significantly shrink from a dominant share of 61% in the global power generation mix today, to 24% by 2030 and further to 4% by 2050.

Also interesting: „We shouldn’t be quick to judge COP29 host“

Transitioning the current power system from fossil fuels to renewables requires stronger and more flexible power grid networks. This can be provided by energy storage solutions, demand-side management, and sector coupling technologies and strategies. Particularly, energy storage is one technical key enabler towards a fully decarbonised, 100% renewable power system.

As countries prepare for the third round of NDCs in 2025, it is crucial that they better align with national energy plans and net-zero targets. IRENA is already working with 101 Parties of the Paris Agreement on the upgrade and implementation of NDCs. Coherent national energy and climate strategies facilitate transparency, attract investment, and accelerate the transition to a low-carbon, resilient economy.

Public finance throug reduction of fossil fuel subsidies

International collaboration can secure the significant increase in finance needed for a just transition that maximises socio-economic benefits. This could be facilitated by new sources of funding such as the global wealth tax championed by this year’s G20, emphasising equity, social or environmental responsibility.

Also see: IRENA monitors progress of renewable and energy efficiency goals

There is also a need for huge amounts of public finance to de-risk projects in high-risk countries and fund crucial infrastructure. Such funding could in part come from a reduction in fossil fuel subsidies, as the new World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024 of IRENA shows. (hcn)





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The three Flame Towers are the modern landmark of the vibrant metropolis of Baku. In the evening, their glass façades bathed in LED projections flicker like blazing flames across the skyline of the Azerbaijani capital. The striking skyscrapers are symbolic in two respects. On the one hand, they are a reminder of the ancient heritage of the “Land of Fire” (the literal translation of Azerbaijan) and, on the other, of the economically dominant oil and gas industry.

Oil, gas and oil products account for 90 percent of exports and 60 percent of the national budget of this country of 10 million inhabitants on the Caspian Sea. Azerbaijan was part of the Soviet Union for 70 years before regaining its independence in 1991.

Gas from the Caspian Sea instead of Siberia

As a result of the Western boycott measures against Russia due to the attack on Ukraine, Azerbaijan has become more of a focus, particularly as a gas supplier for Europe. Gas from the Caspian Sea is to replace gas from Siberia. Natural gas deliveries to the European Union increased from around 8 billion cubic meters in 2022 to around 12 billion cubic meters in 2023. Natural gas imports to the EU are set to rise to around 20 billion cubic meters by 2027 in accordance with a bilateral agreement from 2022.

In addition, Bulgaria is currently negotiating with Azerbaijan on additional gas supplies to Romania, Moldova and Ukraine via the future Balkan Gas Corridor. Bulgaria has been connected to the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (Tap) via a new gas pipeline to Greece for one and a half years. This transports natural gas from Azerbaijan via Turkey to Greece and on to Italy.

“We will save a lot of gas that Europe needs”

Azerbaijan’s strong man, President Ilham Aliyev, sees the increasing gas exports to Europe and the parallel expansion of renewable energies as a “win-win situation”, as he emphasized last Friday (26 April) at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin. Ministers from 40 countries had gathered in Berlin to prepare for the next World Climate Summit (COP29), which Azerbaijan will host in November this year.

This is because more renewable energy in Azerbaijan means that less gas will be burned in power plants for its own supply. “We will save a lot of gas that Europe needs,” said Aliyev. Azerbaijan wants to expand installed renewable power generation from solar and wind parks to 5 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, compared to 1.3 GW at present.

“Defending the right” to continue producing fossil fuels

Aliyev also reported that a feasibility study on the construction of transmission lines for offshore wind power from the Caspian Sea to Europe, including an undersea cable under the Black Sea, is in the final stages. This would enable Azerbaijan to export green electricity to Europe on a larger scale in the future. “As the head of government of a country rich in fossil fuels, we will defend the right of these countries to continue producing and investing, because both are necessary. At the same time, however, fossil fuel countries should also be among those who show solidarity on climate change issues,” Aliyev clarified.

35 percent less CO2 by 2030

Azerbaijan ratified the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017. The country aims to reduce its CO2 emissions by 35 percent by 2030 and by 40 percent by 2050 (compared to 1990 levels). “I hope that the World Climate Conference will provide important impetus. I believe that we can be pioneers in the green transformation,” emphasized Elnur Soltanov, Deputy Energy Minister and COP29 Executive Director, at a press conference with international journalists in Baku in mid-April. The practical implementation of climate protection measures is crucial.

Teymur Guliyev, Deputy Director General of the state energy company SOCAR (State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan), expressed a similar view. The company’s strategy is geared towards decarbonization and corporate sustainability. The subsidiary SOCAR Green LLC was founded to drive forward projects in the areas of renewable energies, green hydrogen and CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage).

Big plans for wind, PV and green hydrogen

These include agreements with the state-owned energy company Masdar (Abu Dhabi) for the joint development of 2 GW of photovoltaic and onshore wind projects as well as the production of green hydrogen from 2 GW of offshore wind energy. A 240 megawatt (MW) solar park, which is being developed jointly with AIC and BP, is due to be connected to the grid at the end of 2025. SOCAR has also already implemented its first renewable energy projects abroad, such as wind farms in Turkey and solar projects in Georgia and Romania.

At the most recent World Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, SOCAR joined the Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC), which more than 50 companies worldwide have signed up to so far. The goals are net-zero emissions by 2050, no routine flaring of associated gas in oil and gas production by 2030 and virtually no methane emissions in the upstream sector.

Efforts to reduce methane emissions

To reduce methane emissions, the company has launched a Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) project under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In collaboration with Total Energies, drones are being used to detect and quantify methane emissions from offshore activities, and SOCAR is participating in a satellite measurement program to accurately identify methane emissions.

By participating in the OGMP 2.0 (Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0) initiative, which is also under the auspices of the United Nations, SOCAR intends to further intensify its efforts to reduce methane emissions, reported Guliyev.

H.C. Neidlein

230 MW Garadagh solar park, 75 km outside of Baku.

Solar power from Garadagh

A greener – at least somewhat – energy future for Azerbaijan has already begun in concrete terms around 75 kilometers southwest of Baku. The 570,000 photovoltaic modules of the 230 MW Garadagh solar park stretch almost to the horizon of the barren, dusty steppe landscape.  Masdar is the operator and investor of the plant, which went into operation last year, and several international development banks, including the EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development), have provided a loan package.

The approximately 500 million kilowatt hours will be supplied to SOCAR via a multi-year power purchase agreement (PPA); the contractual partner is the Azerbaijani Ministry of Energy, which also owns the land. The plant is connected to the electricity grid via a new 330-kilovolt substation.

330-kilovolt substation of the Garadagh solar park.

H.C. Neidlein

330-kilovolt substation of the Garadagh solar park.

More battery storage in future

The technology at the solar park is of the highest quality: bifacial high-performance modules from Longi, mounted on single-axis trackers, and string inverters from Sungrov. In the evenings and at night, cleaning robots that do not require water clean the modules. “Otherwise, the yield would be 20 to 30 percent lower,” reports Kamran Huseynov, Deputy Head of the Azerbaijan Renewable Energy Agency (AREA).

However, he sees the existing electricity grid capacities as a limiting factor for the further expansion of solar and wind projects in the country – as is the case in many places. This is why new projects are increasingly being planned in combination with battery storage systems. A few days ago, the Ministry of Energy in Baku, with the support of the EBRD, announced the first state tender for renewable energies, a 100 MW solar park in Gobustan, albeit without mandatory battery storage.

Smart Village as a blueprint for green energy zone

The Smart Village pilot project in Zangilan focuses on a decentralized supply of renewable energy. Azerbaijani troops recaptured the town in fertile, water-rich Nagorno-Karabakh during the war with Armenia in October 2020. Since then, around 200 low-energy houses with solar thermal systems have already been built in the smart village. Around 175 Azerbaijani families have been resettled – on a voluntary basis,” emphasizes Vahid Hajiyev, Special Presidential Envoy for the region.

Smart Village Zangilan/Nagorno-Karabakh.

H.C. Neidlein

Smart Village Zangilan/Nagorno-Karabakh.

The electricity is supplied by a small hydroelectric power plant with a capacity of 636 kilowatts on the edge of the settlement, which uses German technology. In addition, a school, a kindergarten, a health center, craft businesses, an eco-hotel, agricultural land for self-sufficiency and a rail connection are also being built on the site, which is equipped with high-speed Internet. According to Hajiyev, the planning is based on the sustainability goals of the United Nations.

The Smart Village is intended to serve as a blueprint for the massive reconstruction of the so-called “liberated areas” in Nagorno-Karabakh as a green energy zone.

Hans-Christoph Neidlein





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