Between 2022 and 2023, electricity demand declined by 7.5% mainly due to industries shutting down and relocating abroad during the energy crisis. Electricity markets are recording unprecedented negative prices which risk discouraging future clean investments. The EU needs a robust electrification strategy for decarbonising industry while boosting power demand and competitiveness.

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In 2023, the EU power sector cut emissions by 50% compared to 2008, marking the largest reduction ever achieved by the sector. However, Europe’s electrification rate has been stagnating at 23% for the past ten years when it should make half of EU final energy consumption by 2040. Meanwhile, China grew its rate by 7 percentage points since 2015.

Only 4% of industrial high-emission heating processes electrified

Today, a third of the energy consumed by European industries is covered by electricity, with only 4% of industrial high-emission heating processes being electrified, the report Power Barometer 2024 shows. Buildings’ electrification is also struggling with heat pumps sales decreasing by 5% in 2023. Electric vehicles, on the contrary, increased to a total of 9 million units in 2024, but remain far from the targeted 30 to 44 million units by 2030.

Also see: Double investments in power distribution or lose race to net-zero

“The missing piece between going green and staying competitive is electrifying. Industrial sectors hold a huge potential to electrify further based on available technologies” – said Eurelectric’s Secretary General Kristian Ruby, pointing to electric boilers, arc furnaces, heat pumps, induction eating, plasma torches and more for energy-intensive goods like steel and aluminium.

Need to establish a clear electrification strategy

Beyond lack of power demand, another concern for the sector is increased price volatility. As of August 2024, Europe witnessed 1,031 hours where electricity prices went below zero in at least one EU bidding zone, mostly during solar peaks, with power producers having to pay to supply electricity to the grid. At the same time, parts of Europe witnessed unusually high prices and cross-border spread. These occurrences, combined with low demand and frequent negative prices complicate the business case for additional renewable investments.

On the other hand, negative prices can incentivise more storage and flexibility to stabilise price volatility. Yet, a boost in electricity demand remains crucial to solving this issue.

Eurelectric calls on policymakers to implement the Green Deal, maintain a market-compatible investment framework and establish a clear electrification strategy for a competitive, decarbonised European industry. (hcn)





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New modelling shows that electrification and flexibility can slash average day-ahead energy prices by 25% by 2030, and by 33% by 2040, compared to 2023. At the same time, the solar capture prices will be 71% greater in 2030 compared to the baseline, and 54% higher by 2040, supporting the sustainable growth of solar project developers. 

Beyond benefit for consumer and developer, electrifying and flexing the system means system-wide cost savings – €30 billion saved by 2030 per year, and €160 billion save by 2040 per year. 

Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of SolarPower Europe said:  “It is time to take the next step in energy transition. We need a flexibility revolution, surrounding renewables with grids, storage and electrification. The new political cycle is an opportunity to build the new energy transition agenda. We call on EU leaders to implement the existing electricity market regulation, set new targets for renewables and flexibility to 2040 and adopt an EU electrification action and investment plan as soon as possible.”  

Up to 66 % less curtailment

SolarPower Europe’s new report, Mission Solar 2040: Europe’s Flexibility Revolution, maps out three scenarios through the coming decades; solar-as-usual (SAU), solar + flexibility (SF), and solar + flexibility + electrification (SFE). Compared to SAU, the SFE scenario reduces curtailment – solar energy wasted – by 66% in 2030 and 49% in 2040. The more efficient utilisation of solar energy leads to gains across the economy. 

Also see: EU: Higher solar targets – but grid and storage planning insuffienct

With a flexible, electrified system, more solar can be added to the grid. By the end of this decade, the EU could reach 1.2 TW of solar, much higher than the 750 GW EU Solar Strategy goal. By 2040, the EU could host 2.4 TW of solar, meeting 39% of the bloc’s growing power demand. 

Get our special Special for free download: Hybrid-Powerplant 2024 – Partnership in the power grid

Critically, ramped-up solar deployment would empower the decarbonisation of the economy – driving down emissions the equivalent of over 550 MtCO² per year by 2040 compared to current forecasts.

Recommendations

To deliver the new energy system, the Mission Solar 2040 report recommends the incoming EU leadership: 

– Set EU targets for renewables and flexibility for 2030 and 2040. Flexibility targets do not exist today, explaining the lack of political oversight and progress on that front. 

– Improve energy system modelling capacities, by strengthening the Agency for European Regulators (ACER) and by setting up a new EU Energy Agency to reinforce energy system forecasting. 

– Unlock investment in flexibility across the energy system, primarily by ensuring full implementation of agreed electricity market legislation. 

– Adopt an EU Electrification Action and Investment Plan within the first 100 days of the next Commission’s mandate. (hcn)





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