In their study on the European energy transition, researchers from the Jülich System Analysis have for the first time also included the decarbonization needs of air and sea transport in order to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality in Europe by 2050 in line with the Green Deal. Accordingly, the demand for green hydrogen for the production of synthetic fuels (Power to Liquid, PtL) is half higher than in previous studies.

The Jülich research team estimates that in 2050, Germany alone will need 700 terawatt hours (TWh) of hydrogen annually to produce PtL. This estimate takes into account the high efficiency losses in PtL production. The basic demand for hydrogen, which is needed for the decarbonization of industry, to cover periods of dark and cloudy weather, and for other applications, is in line with earlier studies in 2050 at around 400 TWh per year. Overall, it is expected that green hydrogen production in Europe in 2050 will require about 44 percent of electricity generation (4600 TWh).

However, institute director Detlef Stolten expects that from 2050 onwards, the direct, more efficient use of hydrogen via fuel cells will also increasingly come into play – at least in shipping – and that the high proportion of hydrogen for PtL production can thus be reduced again.

Strong together

To meet the high demand for green hydrogen and the correspondingly higher demand for renewable electricity, the Jülich research team is counting on the expansion of the European energy network. This could make Spain, Norway, Italy and Greece important hydrogen exporters for other European countries in the future. According to the study, the main customer is Germany, with an import quota of 77 percent (550 TWh, 2050), followed by the Netherlands.

Also see: Spain – DH2 Energy receives environmental permit for green hydrogen plant

However, a central prerequisite for such a European hydrogen market, with an estimated volume of 100 billion euros, is an even more massive expansion of renewable electricity generation in Europe. The study calculates that the expansion rates for renewables in Europe would have to be increased by a factor of five. The Jülich research team also emphasizes the advantages of a European network for renewable electricity, both for reasons of security of supply and economic efficiency. For Germany, a domestic electricity supply of 66 percent is forecast for 2050 (430 TWh of imports).

European hydrogen production competitive

The study concludes that Europe could cover its own demand for electricity and hydrogen at low cost. This would give Europe the option of securing its own supply without relying on imports from other countries.

European hydrogen production would be competitive up to an import price of 3.20 euros per kilogram in 2030. However, this would only apply if renewable energies were expanded more. Otherwise, the import of green hydrogen or its products would be necessary, which would increase the total costs by six percent compared to a European solution.

More transport networks and H2 storage

In estimating the costs, the Jülich researchers also take into account the need to expand the infrastructure, especially the transport networks and the interconnection capacities (between countries). For Germany alone, additional interconnection capacities of 90 gigawatts (GW) for electricity and 200 GW for hydrogen are estimated by 2050. Stolten emphasized that the implementation of existing grid expansion plans is now crucial as a first step.

Also see: IEA calls for more investment in grids and energy storage

In addition, hydrogen could be stored in salt caverns to bridge dark and cloudy periods and seasonal fluctuations in wind and solar power. According to the study, existing underground storage facilities for natural gas could be converted for hydrogen storage. Nevertheless, the construction of more than 50 TWh of additional storage capacity in Europe would be necessary, which would correspond to the construction of around 200 salt caverns, 80 of which would be in Germany.

Nuclear power too expensive

According to the analysis by the Jülich researchers, nuclear energy does not play a significant role in a secure, climate-neutral and cost-effective European energy supply. It is not competitive compared to photovoltaics and wind power, even when storage and increased transport costs are taken into account. This applies at least as long as the real investment costs for nuclear power plants do not fall below 6,600 euros per kilowatt (kW).

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Even the newest Finnish nuclear power plant, Olkiluoto 3, is above this threshold at €6,875/kW. The French reactor Flamanville-3 is at €10,875/kW, and Hinkley Point C (Great Britain) is at €17,500/kW. Stolten emphasized that this calculation does not include the costs for disposal, which has not yet been clarified.

At a panel discussion held in Berlin to present the study “European Energy Transition – Germany at the Heart of Europe” of Jülich Research Center (Forschungszentrum Jülich), Stolten also recently expressed skepticism about the much-hyped Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). According to the Jülich institute director, it is not to be expected that these could be operated economically in Europe by 2050 with the appropriate safety standards. (hcn)





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H-TEC Systems, a leading supplier of PEM electrolysis technologies and subsidiary of MAN Energy Solutions will supply 3 × ME450 PEM electrolyzers as the centerpiece of the plant; these will produce up to 1,350 kilograms of green hydrogen per day from green electricity generated by Helen’s renewable energy source portfolio.

Helen Oy is planning to deliver the hydrogen to a nearby hydrogen refueling station via pipeline and distribute it to industrial customers or other refueling stations using containers. The waste heat generated in the production process will be utilised in Helen’s district heating network.

Also interesting: Norway – EnBW starts marketing process for green ammonia

Alexander Stöckler, Head of Sales, Tendering & Project Management, Power Segment at MAN Energy Solutions, said: “Green hydrogen is undoubtedly the key element for a climate-neutral future and the global economy will require it in large quantities. It is therefore most important that energy suppliers like Helen Oy lead the way by building plants and gaining valuable operational experience with hydrogen technology. We urgently need industrial production plants to achieve economies of scale, reduce costs and meet the huge future demand for hydrogen both efficiently and economically.”

PEM electrolysis for green hydrogen

At the core of the plant are the three PEM (Proton Exchange Membrane) electrolyzers from H-TEC SYSTEMS. Through the PEM process, water is split into hydrogen and oxygen with the help of an electric current that is passed through a special membrane. Due to its high dynamics, PEM electrolysis is ideally suited for coupling with fluctuating renewable-electricity sources – such as wind and solar – and has clear advantages over alkaline electrolysis. PEM electrolysis also requires less electricity per kilogram of hydrogen produced, does not use any aggressive chemicals, and produces high-purity hydrogen that is suitable for direct use.

Also see: Spain – DH2 Energy receives environmental permit for green hydrogen plant

Robin von Plettenberg, CEO of H-TEC SYSTEMS, said: “By combining H-TEC SYSTEMS’ expertise in the field of PEM electrolysis with MAN Energy Solutions’ broad experience in plant engineering, we can offer our customers a first-class package for the production of green hydrogen. We are very pleased that Helen Oy has placed its trust in our joint capabilities and is taking this important step into the future of hydrogen with us. With this plant in the vicinity of the Vuosaari Harbour, our electrolyzers will produce green hydrogen in all Scandinavian countries and Finland. In this way, we are well on the way to laying an important foundation for a climate-neutral energy supply.” (hcn)





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The report of McKinsey reveals that the global energy transition is entering a new phase, marked by rising costs, complexity and increased technology challenges. Growing energy demand and resulting emissions could affect the pace of the energy transition, which will require a rethink of both low-carbon and fossil fuel strategies to meet the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement.

Key insights

Key insights include:

– Global energy demand is projected to grow by up to 18% through 2050, mainly driven by growth in energy consumption in emerging economies (especially ASEAN countries, India and the Middle East). – –

– Renewables are projected to grow to 65-80% of the global power generation mix by 2050 depending on the scenario.

– Notably, hydrogen demand is projected to be up to 25% lower than previously anticipated due to cost increases of 20-40% and regulatory uncertainty.

– Fossil fuels are projected to account for 40-60% of total energy demand to 2050, with fossil fuel demand projected to plateau between around 2025-2035 and begin declining thereafter.

– Key drivers of oil demand decline include EV uptake, continued plastic recycling and increased demand for sustainable fuels.

– By 2050, BEVs are projected to account for 99% of global passenger vehicle sales in the Continued Momentum scenario, up from 13% today and 71% in 2030.

– A consequential impact on emissions, which have not yet peaked and are projected to begin their decline between 2025 and 2035. Annual capital spending on physical assets is projected to grow by up to 80% by 2040.

Clean energy solutions must scale up

The analysis demonstrates that the build out of clean energy technologies has not been fast enough to meet growing global energy demand. To date, the buildout of renewable energy sources has largely benefitted from the most promising use cases or “low-hanging fruit” where policy and funding have been most plentiful.

Also see: Double investments in power distribution or lose race to net-zero

Diego Hernandez Diaz, Partner at McKinsey reflected on the findings: “To navigate this critical phase of the energy transition while keeping it affordable, reliable, and green, we need urgent action and a faster pace of change. Even with the surge in global net-zero targets, the technologies needed to reach them aren’t progressing quickly enough. Low-carbon solutions must scale up, but they’re facing an uphill battle as rising interest rates and supply chain challenges limit access to capital.”

Global price too low

Critically, the report also shows that the current pace of the energy transition could necessitate new oil production to meet energy demand, across all bottom-up scenarios. The previously anticipated fossil fuel peak at the end of this decade is now better characterized as a plateau. Simultaneously, the projections show the global carbon price is currently too low to drive the decarbonization required for the conditions of faster scenarios to be met, particularly the at-scale uptake of carbon, capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), which will be vital to mitigate more carbon intensive fuel sources.

Humayun Tai, Senior Partner at McKinsey, added: “In order to accelerate the energy transition, continued investment into CCUS and energy efficiency is essential to mitigate fossil fuel dependence. Ensuring a viable business case through the right combination of policy, financial frameworks, and incentives will be critical in driving stakeholder adoption and buildout of low-carbon technologies.”

See also: Energy transition not on track – more PV needed

The new report notes that accelerating the pace of the transition will require overcoming several bottlenecks impacting the uptake of low-carbon technologies, including electricity generation and sustainable fuels. This layered with T&D investments needing to grow nearly three-fold by 2050 to recover from under investment and accommodate for intermittent RES, demonstrates the scale of the challenge ahead. (hcn)





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At this year’s The smarter E Europe, EDP campaigned for more climate protection with the We Choose Earth Tour Conference and is also involved in the global Utilities for Net Zero Alliance. What goals have you set yourself for the switch to renewable energies and how far have you already come?

EDP has a 20-year track record in the energy transition, and we have set clear goals going forward. To be 100% green in our energy generation by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality throughout our value chain by 2040. We are well on track, with 98% of the energy we generated in the first half of 2024 coming fully from renewable sources.

EDP is committed to continue this path with an investment plan of 17 billion euros in the energy transition by 2026, of which 2.5 billion euros will be allocated to distributed solar energy projects for families and companies, making a decisive contribution to the energy transition.

The world’s capacity to generate renewable electricity is expanding faster than ever, and EDP is well positioned to capture this growth globally. With a presence across Europe, South America, North America, and Asia-Pacific, we currently have more than 26.6 GW of renewable capacity installed worldwide and aim to add around 3 GW per year of renewables until 2026.

Implementing net-zero pledges demands collective effort, innovation, and stakeholder engagement. Conferences like the We Choose Earth Tour are crucial for mobilizing individuals and corporations to tackle the climate crisis and promote environmental and social preservation.

Are you also active in the field of green hydrogen and green gases – and what role do natural gas and LNG currently play?

Yes, EDP is active in the development of renewable hydrogen projects, having a dedicated business unit responsible for the creation of growth opportunities in this field. We are leveraging on our leading position in renewables, existing assets and competences, and innovation track record to successfully develop green molecules to complement our offer of energy solutions to our clients, supporting the decarbonization of all industries, including those hard to electrify.

EDP’s transition strategy away from fossil fuel operations is providing an opportunity for the development of renewable hydrogen hubs in sites of former coal power plants, maintaining the local and regional socioeconomic dynamics (and employability), leveraging on the know-how, industrial capability and premium location of these sites, our employees and our local business partners.

Today, EDP has a solid pipeline of renewable hydrogen projects, out of which ~500 MW are in advanced stage of development. We have one pilot project in operation in Brazil (1,25 MW that began operation in Dec-2022) and another pilot project under commissioning in Portugal (another 1,25 MW that should begin operations soon).

When it comes to commercial scale projects, our most advanced projects are in Portugal and in Spain, where we have projects between 5 and 150 MW, including 3 IPCEI (Important Project of Common European Interest) projects, 2 that have received Innovation Funds, and several with public funding secured through both national and European supporting instruments. In total, EDP has already secured ~400 M€ in public funding for the most mature projects and we expect to reach FID (Final Investment Decision) for some of them in the upcoming months.

While there are still significant challenges to overcome, hydrogen production is expected to grow massively by 2030 and beyond, and EDP, as a leader in the energy transition, has a business strategy fully aligned with this vision.

How do you see the future of nuclear power?

The energy transition should be approached in a way that positively impacts the economy and the welfare of citizens. Being realistic about affordability is essential, as the effort required on this transition is significant. So we at EDP advocate and work every day to achieve a diversified energy mix, combining many technologies, that can foster the transition while supporting the economy.

For this reason, it is important to prioritize technologies with a short time to market: in addition to renewables, battery storage is expected to play a crucial role in this diversified capacity mix. Nuclear is expensive and with a very long time to market so we do not see this technology playing a massive role in the next few years, apart from a few countries with specific conditions. Coal is doomed and must be removed from the mix, renewables will play the central part and gas will have a role as backup in the system.

How do you deal with negative electricity exchange prices when switching to more renewable energies? Will this jeopardize the financing of new projects?

We’ve seen a significant drop in energy prices throughout the last year after the spike following the invasion of Ukraine. Current prices reflect not only this normalization, but they’ve also been influenced by specific conditions in recent months: higher production coming from water, wind, and sun.

In Europe we have a high penetration of renewables, so when there’s a lot of renewable production, prices plummet, sometimes even going negative. We will continue to witness volatility in the market, so to keep investment in renewables attractive, it is important to have mechanisms that can give predictability and stability.

PPAs are an example of these mechanisms and give renewable energy producers this visibility while allowing companies that contract them to have price stability and clean energy. At EDP we have a strong track record in creating these partnerships with companies across a wide range of sectors, thus contributing to decarbonization efforts across the globe.

Government-promoted auctions are other mechanisms that are stable. Additionally, it’s crucial to introduce solutions like capacity mechanisms, ensuring certain technologies are available to operate, when necessary.

Are more energy storage, better coordination of energy generation and consumption and more and smarter grids the ideal way to achieve a more efficient, renewable electricity supply?

To meet the expected 60% increase in generation and consumption of electricity by 2030 in Europe, we need more and better investment in grids. To do this, we undoubtedly need to invest more in expanding grids, both transmission and distribution, but also to use the current grid assets more efficiently by investing in automation, digitalization, and just generally making the grids smarter.

We also need to be more innovative in the way we use existing grid connections. By enabling hybrid projects with multiple renewable technologies in the same interconnection point, we enhance grid use and create complementary technologies that promote a steady energy supply to the grid. Storage, on the other hand, can also help us promote a smarter use of the grid and avoid energy to be wasted.

The build-out of networks or the development of new renewable technologies, like other infrastructure projects, still face significant bottlenecks and we need a collective effort and strong political and regulatory support to get the infrastructure in place to accelerate the energy transition.

How much are you investing in this area? Do you already operate hybrid renewable plants coupled with storage systems on a large scale?

Hybridization is a logical growth path in the electricity generation industry, since it can promote a balance in availability of supply, energy prices, infrastructure optimization and a smaller environmental footprint.

So, we are looking to explore hybridization in its multiple forms: we were the first company to put into operation hybrid plants that combine wind and solar sources in Portugal, Spain and Poland and we’re looking to do so in other geographies where regulation allows it. We also inaugurated Europe’s largest solar energy production floating platform on a lake, the Alqueva floating solar plant installed in a reservoir that features the combination of hydro and a photovoltaic plant.

Our ambition doesn’t end here as we are looking to develop more hybrid assets by adding storage systems. We’ve recently launched a 200 MW solar energy park in California that includes a 40 MW battery energy storage system (BESS) that will generate enough energy to power approximately 68,000 average California homes annually. So we keep exploring options depending on the market conditions in which we operate, but always we the same premise of deploying more renewables and creating positive impact in the communities in which we operate.

Interview by Hans-Christoph Neidlein





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Hysencia thus becomes one of the few commercial renewable hydrogen production projects to have this permit in Spain and Europe.

This follows on from Hysencia being one of the winners in the first European renewable hydrogen auction last April, in which the European Commission selected only seven projects out of 132 submitted across Europe.

99 MWh solar electricity yearly to power the electrolyser

“Obtaining the Integrated Environmental Authorization represents an important milestone for the Hysencia project and DH2 Energy’s significant portfolio of projects under development. Hysencia is one of the most advanced commercial-scale renewable hydrogen production plants in Spain.

This project has a territorial vocation and will have a very positive impact in Aragon, during both the construction and operational phases for the generation of its green hydrogen as a clean energy vector” declared DH2 Energy’s Renewable Hydrogen Projects Development Director for Spain, Raquel Fernández Corzo.

DH2 Energy, headquartered in Madrid, will begin construction of the plant in early 2025. The facilities will occupy a 100-hectare site in Plasencia del Monte, in the municipality of La Sotonera, Aragon. The project uses its captive solar energy plant to produce 99 gigawatt hours of renewable electricity each year to power the electrolyser and also entails a 10 MW connection to the electricity grid.

1,700 tonnes of renewable hydrogen annually

Hysencia will produce 1,700 tonnes of renewable hydrogen each year and avoid the emission of around 16,000 tonnes of CO2 per year. The green hydrogen will be supplied to the mobility and industrial sectors.

Also see: Switzerland to build ten-megawatt hydrogen electrolysis plant

Hysencia’s location is effectively ideally suited for the supply of renewable hydrogen to the transport sector as it is close to different land communication axes including the Huesca-Canfranc railway line.

Region with extensive experience in the renewable hydrogen sector

The Aragon region has extensive experience in the renewable hydrogen sector, notably through its institutions and the Hydrogen Aragon Foundation, maintains a strong commitment to green hydrogen and supports its entire value chain.

The Aragon Hydrogen Foundation has also adopted a Hydrogen Master Plan, the first version of which dates from 2007. In addition, last year the region tested one of the first hydrogen pilot trains in Spain on the Huesca-Canfranc railway line. (hcn)





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The plan is to make the quantities available from 2027. They can be transported to various delivery locations, such as the port of Skipavika in Norway, to selected terminals in Western Europe or to industrial sites, including in Germany. Interested companies can register online to tender for the corresponding capacities. The process starts today, Friday (July 26).

SkiGA is considered one of the first emission-free production plants for green ammonia in Europe thanks to the use of local green electricity and is thus doing important pioneering work for the realization of climate-friendly production processes in industry and the energy sector. The planned electrolyzer has a capacity of 130 megawatts. The climate-friendly production process will save around 240,000 tons of CO₂ per year compared to the use of grey ammonia.

Successful at first auction of European hydrogen bank

EnBW entered into a cooperation with its Norwegian partner FUELLA in 2023 and contributed a 10% equity stake in order to support the investment decision and secure exclusive rights to long-term purchase agreements. The importance of SkiGA’s competitive position was recently demonstrated by the European hydrogen bank’s first auction: The project was one of seven to receive a grant.

Also see: CO2 – Off to sea

Peter Heydecker, EnBW Board Member for Sustainable Generation Infrastructure, emphasizes the importance of the cooperation with FUELLA: “We are very pleased that we have found a partner in Norway in FUELLA to jointly gain important experience in the development and upscaling of a green gas infrastructure. The quantities of green ammonia secured for EnBW give us a good starting position in the market ramp-up and mark a further step on the way to a carbon-free energy supply.“

Background

Ammonia is also a means of transporting hydrogen, as it can be converted back into hydrogen using the “cracking” process. Compared to hydrogen, ammonia has the advantage that the market and logistics are already available and well established.

Also interesting: Europe`s largest green hydrogen plant operational

Ammonia is one of the most frequently produced and transported chemicals in the world. It is used in fertilizer production, as a chemical feedstock and as a low-carbon fuel.
The production of gray ammonia causes more than 1% of global CO₂ emissions. Compared to grey ammonia, green ammonia avoids 2.4 tons of CO₂ per ton of ammonia and is therefore an ideal CO₂-neutral fuel. (hcn)





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