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IRENA is calling for ambitious NDC updates

November 11, 2024 ryansheehanrts

Released at the opening of the UN Climate Conference COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the Agency’s 1.5°C Scenario outlines a net-zero path by midcentury, offering a framework for governments to develop energy transition strategies that better align energy planning with climate policies to channel investment.

The Outlook shows that current country pledges could cut global energy-related CO2 emissions by 3% by 2030 and 51% by 2050. Achieving the global goals of tripling renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, as agreed at COP28, would keep the energy transition on track for net-zero emissions by 2050. These 2030 targets are crucial to limiting global temperature rise to below 1.5°C, as underscored by the UAE Consensus.

However, a significant gap remains between political announcements and actual county plans and policies. National plans and targets are set to deliver only half of the required growth in renewable power by 2030. Investments in renewable power, grids and flexibility, energy efficiency and conservation must increase dramatically to meet the renewable energy and efficiency goals, totalling USD 31.5 trillion from 2024-2030.

Large geographical disparities regarding renewable investments

There are also large geographical disparities in terms of renewable additions and investments, causing inequalities in the global energy transition. While renewable investment has generally been on the rise, it remains concentrated in a few countries, leaving much of the Global South behind.

Also see: Azerbaijan – More renewables and more gas for Europe

Moreover, with over 70% energy supply, fossil fuels continue to dominate the energy mix in several of the biggest economies, the world’s largest CO2 emitters. To meet the 1.5°C target, the G20 must triple its installed renewable power capacity by 2030, reaching 9,400 gigawatts (GW), and expand it seven-fold by 2050 to 24,900 GW, compared to 2023 levels.

We have reached crunch time. A robust global finance deal and the next NDCs (nationally determined contributions) in 2025 are ‘make or break’ moments to keep 1.5°C alive. NDCs 3.0 provide the last opportunity this decade for countries to step up their stated ambitions. Particularly, an agreement on a new quantified goal for climate finance at COP29 is critical to ensure a just transition, support investments in the Global South and empower countries to step up their NDC ambitions. 1.5°C hinges on efforts by G20 countries. Their NDCs must match global commitments to triple renewable power capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030.

Stronger and more flexible power grid networks

Under IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario, renewable energy sources would provide the bulk of the power mix, accounting for 68% and 91% of the total electricity supply by 2030 and 2050, respectively. By 2050, a deep transformation of the power and end-use sectors is required to enable the high shares of renewable energy required by the transition.

Globally, the expansion of renewable electricity will facilitate the transition away from fossil fuels in the power sector. Fossil fuels will significantly shrink from a dominant share of 61% in the global power generation mix today, to 24% by 2030 and further to 4% by 2050.

Also interesting: „We shouldn’t be quick to judge COP29 host“

Transitioning the current power system from fossil fuels to renewables requires stronger and more flexible power grid networks. This can be provided by energy storage solutions, demand-side management, and sector coupling technologies and strategies. Particularly, energy storage is one technical key enabler towards a fully decarbonised, 100% renewable power system.

As countries prepare for the third round of NDCs in 2025, it is crucial that they better align with national energy plans and net-zero targets. IRENA is already working with 101 Parties of the Paris Agreement on the upgrade and implementation of NDCs. Coherent national energy and climate strategies facilitate transparency, attract investment, and accelerate the transition to a low-carbon, resilient economy.

Public finance throug reduction of fossil fuel subsidies

International collaboration can secure the significant increase in finance needed for a just transition that maximises socio-economic benefits. This could be facilitated by new sources of funding such as the global wealth tax championed by this year’s G20, emphasising equity, social or environmental responsibility.

Also see: IRENA monitors progress of renewable and energy efficiency goals

There is also a need for huge amounts of public finance to de-risk projects in high-risk countries and fund crucial infrastructure. Such funding could in part come from a reduction in fossil fuel subsidies, as the new World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024 of IRENA shows. (hcn)

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Solar Energy

Record annual growth of renewable jobs in 2023

October 2, 2024 ryansheehanrts

2023 saw the highest ever increase in renewable energy jobs, from 13.7 million in 2022 to 16.2 million, according to the newly released Renewable Energy and Jobs – Annual Review 2024 by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the International Labour Organization (ILO).

The 18% year-on-year leap the strong growth of renewables generating capacities, together with a continued expansion of equipment manufacturing.

A closer look at the report’s data, however, shows an uneven global picture. Close to two-thirds of new global solar and wind capacity were installed in China alone last year.

PV related jobs with the highest growth

China leads with an estimated 7.4 million renewable energy jobs, or 46% of the global total. The EU followed suit with 1.8 million, Brazil with 1.56 million, and the United States and India, each with close to 1 million jobs.

As in the past few years, the strongest impetus came from the rapidly growing solar photovoltaics (PV) sector, which supported 7.2 million jobs globally. Of these, 4.6 million were in China, the dominant PV manufacturer and installer. Enabled by significant Chinese investments, Southeast Asia has emerged as an important export hub of solar PV, creating jobs in the region.

Liquid biofuels had the second-largest number of jobs, followed by hydropower and wind. Brazil topped the biofuels ranks, accounting for one third of the world’s 2.8 million jobs in this sector. Soaring production put Indonesia in second, with a quarter of global biofuels jobs.

Also interesting: PV 56 % cheaper than fossil fuels or nuclear

Due to a slowdown in deployment, hydropower became an outlier to the overall growth trend, with the number of direct jobs estimated to have shrunk from 2.5 million in 2022 to 2.3 million. China, India, Brazil, Viet Nam and Pakistan were the largest employers in the industry.

In the wind sector, China and Europe remain dominant. As leaders in turbine manufacturing and installations, they contributed 52% and 21% to the global total of 1.5 million jobs, respectively.

Africa lacking behind

Despite immense resource potential, Africa continues to receive only a small share of global renewables investments, which translated into a total of 324,000 renewables jobs in 2023. For regions in urgent need of reliable and sustainable energy access like Africa, and especially in remote areas, decentralised renewable energy (DRE) solutions–stand-alone systems that are not connected to the utility grids–present an opportunity to both plug the access gap and generate jobs. Removing barriers for women to start entrepreneurship initiatives in DRE can stimulate the sector, resulting in improved local economies and energy equity.

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Acknowledging the high degree of geographic concentration, Francesco La Camera, IRENA Director-General, said, “The story of the energy transition and its socio-economic gains should not be about one or two regions. If we are all to fulfil our collective pledge to triple renewable power capacity by 2030, the world must step up its game and support marginalised regions in addressing barriers impeding their transitions progress. Strengthened international collaboration can mobilise increased finance towards policy support and capacity building in countries that are yet to benefit from renewables job creation.”

Need for more diverse job opportunities

To meet the energy transitions’ growing demand for diverse skills and talents, policies must support measures in favour of greater workforce diversity and gender equity. Representing 32% of the renewables total workforce, women continue to hold an unequal share even as the number of jobs keeps rising. It is essential that education and trainings lead to diverse job opportunities for women, youth, and members of minority and disadvantaged groups.

“Investing in education, skills, and training helps reskill all workers from fossil fuel sectors, address gender or other disparities, and prepare the workforce for new clean energy roles. It is essential if we are to equip workers with the knowledge and skills that they need to get decent jobs, and to ensure that the energy transition is a just and sustainable one. A sustainable transition is what the Paris Agreement requires of us, and what we committed to achieving when we signed up to the Agreement,” explained ILO Director-General, Gilbert F. Houngbo.

11th edition of the Annual Review

This 11th edition of the Annual Review is part of IRENA’s extensive analytical work on the socio-economic impacts of a renewables-based energy transition. This edition—which is the 4th edition developed in collaboration with ILO–underscores the importance of a people- and planet-centred approach to achieve a just and inclusive transition.

It calls for a holistic policy framework that goes beyond the pursuit of technological innovation to rapidly meet the tripling target at the lowest-possible cost, and prioritises local value creation, ensures the creation of decent jobs, and builds on active participation by workers and communities in shaping the energy transition. Building on its expertise on the world of work, the ILO contributed the report’s chapter on skills. (hcn)

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Solar Energy

IRENA report – PV 56 % cheaper than fossil fuels or nuclear

September 25, 2024 ryansheehanrts

Renewables remain competitive despite fossil fuel prices returning closer to historical cost levels, concludes Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2023, released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) at the Global Renewables Summit during the UN General Assembly in New York.

Of the record 473 gigawatts (GW) added in 2023, 81% or 382 GW of newly commissioned, utility-scale renewable projects had lower costs than their fossil fuel-fired alternatives.

IRENA’s new report shows that after decades of falling costs and improving technology particularly for solar and wind, the socio-economic and environmental benefits of renewable energy deployment are now uniquely compelling.

4 US-cents/kWh average PV costs globally

With a spectacular decline in costs to around four US cents per kilowatt hour in just one year, solar photovoltaics (PV)’s global costs in 2023 were 56% lower than fossil fuel and nuclear options. Overall, the renewable power deployed globally since 2000 has saved up to USD 409 billion in fuel costs in the power sector.

IRENA’s Director-General Francesco La Camera said: “Renewable power remains cost-competitive vis-à-vis fossil fuels. The virtuous cycle of long-term support policies has accelerated renewables. In return, growth has led to technology improvements and cost reductions. Prices for renewables are no excuse anymore, on the contrary. The record growth of renewables in 2023 exemplifies this. Low-cost renewables represent a key incentive to significantly increase ambition and triple renewable power capacity by 2030, as modelled by IRENA and set by the UAE Consensus at COP28”.

Battery storage projects costs dropped by 89% since 2010

Achieving the tripling renewables target requires global renewable capacity to reach 11.2 terawatts (TW) by 2030, adding an average of 1044 GW of new capacity annually through 2030. 8.5 TW would come from solar PV and onshore wind alone according to IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook.

Most importantly, the tripling goal must be accompanied by key energy transition enablers, such as storage. Battery storage project costs have dropped by 89% between 2010 and 2023, facilitating the integration of high shares of solar and wind capacity by helping address grid infrastructure challenges.

Also see: Large battery storage systems as new champions

La Camera added: “In the coming years, remarkable growth across all renewable energy sources is expected, giving countries great economic opportunities. Our analysis indicates that solar PV and onshore wind will have the biggest impacts on the tripling of renewables. Thanks to low-cost renewables in the global market, policy makers have an immediate solution at hand to reduce fossil fuels dependency, limit the economic and social damage of carbon-intensive energy use, drive economic development and harness energy security benefits.”

12% less costs for PV from new projects in 2023

In 2023, the global weighted average cost of electricity from newly commissioned renewable projects across most technologies fell, for solar PV by 12%, for onshore wind by 3%, for offshore wind by 7%, for concentrating solar power by 4% and for hydropower by 7%, the new IRENA report unveils.

In non-OECD economies where electricity demand is growing and new capacity is needed, renewable power generation projects with lower costs than fossil fuel-fired equivalents for their country and region will significantly reduce electricity system costs over the life of their operation.

Huge savings with renewables

In 2023, Asia registered the highest cumulative savings in the period between 2000-2010, estimated at USD 212 billion, followed by Europe with USD 88 billion and South America with an estimated USD 53 billion.

Also see: Rising energy demand affecting the pace of the energy transition

Renewable power generation has become the default source of least-cost new power generation. Policy makers and stakeholders should focus on ensuring that policies, regulations, market structures, support instruments, de-risking mechanisms, and financing are all rapidly aligned with the tripling target and submitted in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement in 2025. (hcn)

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